A new study by OpenAI and the University of Pennsylvania investigates the potential impact of Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT) models on the U.S. labor market. The paper, titled “GPTs are GPTs: An Early Look at the Labor Market Impact Potential of Large Language Models,” assesses occupations based on their correspondence with GPT capabilities, using both human expertise and classifications from GPT-4. The study finds that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their tasks impacted. The impact spans all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater exposure. The paper concludes that GPTs exhibit characteristics of general-purpose technologies, which could have significant economic, social, and policy implications. This comes to no surprise for everyone who used GPT-4 or watched the recent Microsoft announcment.

I discussed this topic in more depth in my book review of “A World Without Work”. This research supports the author’s point and indicates a radical shift in the economy in the coming years. I highly recommend reading the paper, the book, or at least my book review.